5G Thoughts丨5G is developing at the right time

Mobile communication technology is generated every ten years, and currently is the period when global mobile communication networks are transitioning from 4G to 5G. my country is at the forefront of the world in deploying 5G networks to promote the innovative development of 5G applications. This is an appropriate decision to meet the needs of national and industrial development.

First of all, using 5G to expand economic development space is the current national strategic development need.

At present, our country has entered a new stage of promoting economic development through technological innovation. The "14th Five-Year Plan" outline emphasizes that we must persist in deepening supply-side structural reforms and lead and create new demands driven by innovation and high-quality supply. In order to ensure high-quality and sustainable economic development, our country needs to expand its economic growth space through cutting-edge technological innovation, and through years of technological catch-up and capital accumulation, our country already has such capabilities and foundation. ,

At this stage, building 5G networks to explore and expand space for economic growth is the best choice. 5G is one of the core key technologies in the new round of technological and industrial revolution. It will be integrated with the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies. It may not only form a series of new business forms and become a new driving force for economic growth, but may also empower various economic and social fields and bring about revolutionary changes in the economic form and even the social form. According to predictions from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, it is expected that by 2025, 5G will drive network investment by telecom operators to approximately 1.2 trillion yuan; the cumulative scale of information consumption will exceed 8.3 trillion yuan; and the cumulative total direct economic output will be approximately 10.1 trillion yuan.

At present, our country is one of the important leaders in 5G technical standards and has advantages in equipment, networks, and applications. Global 5G commercialization in 2019, simultaneous deployment of 5G networks around the world, and exploration of 5G application development will help transform my country's leading technological innovation advantages into market innovation advantages, and in the process accumulate experience in using technological innovation to build new industries and new ecology. This experience will be extremely valuable for my country's long-term future development.

Of course, as a global pioneer using 5G innovation to expand market space, it will inevitably face more risks and investments. During the 3G/4G period, my country, as a follower in the field of mobile communications, developed mobile Internet, reduced investment in cultivating commercial equipment and network maturity, reduced the risk of market changes, and achieved great success. But looking at other developed economies, as leaders in global 3G/4G innovation, although they bear greater risks and costs for innovation, they also gain greater benefits, including determining the status of product and application standards, opportunities to establish industrial ecology, opportunities to select the best markets in the world, opportunities to establish industry thresholds, etc. Risks and returns are directly proportional. The internal and external environment of today's development has made it urgent for our country to participate in cutting-edge technology and market competition. Therefore, it is necessary to promote 5G commercial exploration and innovation at present.

Secondly, the growth of mobile user traffic is driving network expansion, and the evolution of mobile networks to 5G is a natural progression.

In recent years, with the decline in mobile traffic rates and the enrichment of mobile Internet applications, mobile user traffic has continued to grow. The COVID-19 epidemic and the new "stay-at-home" lifestyle have further increased the demand for mobile Internet applications. High-traffic application scenarios such as short videos, live broadcasts, online video education, and online meetings have become mainstream applications for user consumption, driving the rapid growth of mobile Internet traffic. In 2020, my country's mobile Internet access traffic increased by 35.7% over the previous year. The average monthly mobile Internet traffic per household (DOU) for the whole year reached 10.35GB/household-month, an increase of 32% over the previous year and 13.6 times the monthly average traffic per household in 2016. With the growth of user traffic, 4G network utilization has reached 90% during peak periods in hotspot areas in some first-tier cities, affecting user experience. The continuous increase of mobile user data traffic makes it difficult for my country's original network to support the business needs of many users, and there is an urgent need for a network that can carry larger capacity.

Under this trend, the original mobile network is in urgent need of upgrade and expansion, and the evolution to 5G network is the general trend. my country's 5G uses mid- and low-frequency band networking, and 5G and 4G base stations are basically at the same site, which means that the number of 5G base stations is basically the same as that of 4G. The capacity of a single 5G base station is more than 10 times that of a 4G base station, and the price is about twice as high. This means that the cost-effectiveness of 5G base station construction is more than five times that of 4G. Of course, 5G networks also face problems such as high energy consumption of base stations and the need for network optimization. But overall, the current construction of 5G networks is more beneficial both from a short-term investment and a long-term perspective.

Finally, the economic and social digital transformation process is accelerating, which requires the support of 5G infrastructure.

While the COVID-19 epidemic has had a major negative impact on the economy and society, it has also accelerated the process of digital transformation in various fields, allowing 5G+ emerging technologies to be more quickly integrated into thousands of industries. On the one hand, epidemic prevention and control has made more entrepreneurs and managers realize the value of digitalization and the necessity of investment. According to a survey report by Tsinghua University, more than 53% of enterprises are willing to carry out digital transformation after the epidemic is over, far exceeding the past. On the other hand, the epidemic has stimulated demand for 5G applications. During the epidemic, the "stay-at-home" economy developed rapidly, and applications such as 5G+ high-definition video, 5G+ telemedicine, and 5G+ smart prevention and control also greatly improved the efficiency of epidemic prevention. The epidemic has stimulated the public's demand for larger capacity and faster information communications, making 5G application scenarios clearer and more feasible. In the past year, 5G industry applications have been explored in many fields. Currently, it has been gradually recognized by the industry in 10 fields including factories, mines, ports, medical care, power grids, transportation, security, education, cultural tourism and smart cities, and has initially formed application scenarios that are expected to be commercialized on a large scale.

In summary, the current acceleration of 5G network construction is in line with the needs of the country, economic society and industry development.Of course, this does not mean that 5G network construction must be carried out blindly and quickly, without considering the input-output ratio. my country's 5G network must adhere to the principle of moderate advancement, match the development path and rhythm of applications, continue to optimize network construction strategies, operating strategies and policy environments, continuously reduce the deployment and operating costs of the entire network, and support the cultivation of applications at the lowest possible cost.

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